Global demand for oil will stabilize at 106 billion bpd by the end of the decade
We risk reaching 2030 with an “important” surplus of oil. Demand will stabilize over the next few years, from the current 102 million barrels per day (bpd) to 106 million bpd. But the offer “is destined to increase” seen the orientation of the industry and the investments grounded and announced. Up to 114 million bpd in 2030. A “staggering” figure for the repercussions it could have on the global oil market, says a new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which confirms the forecast on peak oil by the end of the advanced decade already last year.
Global oil market, demand towards plateau at 106 mln bpd
The surge in production will be driven mainly by actors from the United States and other countries in the American continent. Between 2023 and 2030 the US will add another 2.1 billion bpd while Argentina, Brazil, Canada and Guyana should contribute 2.7 billion bpd.
“This would result in unused capacity levels never seen before except at the peak of Covid-19 blocks in 2020. The unused capacity at these levels could have significant consequences for the oil markets, including the OPEC producing economies and beyond, as well as for the US shale industry,” says the agency led by Fatih Birol.
In contrast, the demand curve will point downwards. It will continue to be stimulated by factors such as the rapid growth of Asian economies (especially the transport sector in India) and the aviation and petrochemical sectors. But the growth of the global oil market, the IEA estimates, will be “increasingly compensated” by the progressive spread of electric cars, the improvement of efficiency in endothermic vehicles, and lower demand for electricity generation in the Middle East.
“As the resumption of the pandemic loses momentum, transitions to clean energy advance, and the structure of China’s economy changes, global oil demand growth is slowing and will peak by 2030. This year we expect demand to rise by about 1 million barrels per day,” comments Fatih Birol. The projected surplus of 8 billion bpd “suggests that oil companies may want to make sure their strategies and business plans are prepared for the changes taking place”.
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