Ecosystem services: the climate crisis will reduce them by 9.2% by 2100

The study published in Nature

– The impact of the climate crisis will decrease by 9.2% the benefits we derive from ecosystem services by 2100. With serious repercussions on the global economy. It is particularly damaging for countries that are already more vulnerable to both climate change and economic shocks.

To calculate it is a study by the University of California – Davis, recently published in Nature. Ecosystem services are all those benefits that man derives from natural cycles, such as the cycle of nutrients and the formation and natural fertilization of soils, from the renewal of resources such as water, and from regulatory actions, such as pollination or absorption of CO2.

-1.3% of GDP in 2100

What will this substantial decline cause? The “displacement” of ecosystems due to increasing climatic and environmental pressures. To determine a net value of these changes, the study arrives at a country-wide estimate and calculates how many benefits will be missed. Even in terms of global GDP lost: it will be 1.3% less.

These are estimates that researchers call extremely conservative. Because they rely only on variables related to terrestrial systems, mainly forests and grasslands. Other ecosystems are excluded from the scope of this study.

The decline in ecosystem services mainly affects the poorest countries

Thanks to the granular understanding of the transformations expected in the coming decades, the authors were also able to verify which countries will suffer the greatest impact of the climate crisis in terms of the loss of ecosystem services.

The result is very clear: climate change-induced changes in vegetation, rainfall regimes and increased CO2 will result in much greater damage for already more vulnerable countries. “Our research found that 50% of the world’s poorest countries and regions are expected to suffer an incredible 90% of GDP damage,” said Bernardo Bastien-Olvera, co-author of the research.